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Polish pharmaceutical market: 7% CAGR expected for 2009-2011

In 2008 the pharmacy market in Poland was worth PLN 24.1bn (€6.9bn), which represented 11.5% growth in comparison with 2007. At present, it is one of the areas of the Polish economy which boasts the most optimistic forecasts for the next few years. Between 2009 and 2011 the CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) will reach 7.4%.

2008 – one of the best years of the decade for the pharmaceutical industry
In 2008 the pharmaceutical market in Poland was worth PLN 24.1bn (€6.9bn), representing an 11.5% increase in comparison with 2007, according to the latest PMR Publications report, “The Pharmaceutical and healthcare market in Poland 2009”. The financial crisis does not seem to have had an impact on the pharmaceutical market in Poland in 2008. Furthermore, 2008 was one of the best years for the pharmaceutical industry in the past decade, in part because of high GDP growth and related increases in the purchasing power of Polish consumers. Non-refunded OTC products, with dietary supplements at the helm, drove market growth. As a consequence, in 2008 OTC products already represented 34% of the overall pharmacy market in Poland, whereas in 2005 they accounted for around 30%. Close to half of 2008 market value was, however, generated by sales of prescription preparations subject to reimbursement.

Innovative drugs drive pharmaceutical market growth
In 2008, in comparison with 2007, the monetary value of drugs increased in all therapeutic groups. The most substantial increase was that of antineoplastic and immunomodulating agents (49%) and drugs in the category of blood and blood forming organs (21%).
It is also worthy of note that market growth was also helped, for the first time in years, by sales of innovative preparations, as a result of beneficial changes to reimbursement lists implemented at the end of 2007. In 2008 sales of refunded drugs increased by almost 11%. A year earlier, in 2007, this market area expanded by only 0.3% year on year.
Sales of prescription preparations improved by 10.4% (in terms of value) in 2008 in comparison with 2007.
Development forecasts for 2009-2011
On the one hand, we can assume that the financial crisis will have the most significant bearing on sales of OTC products. Patients pay 100% of the cost of OTC preparations; the preparations themselves often only supplement the treatment, and that is why these are the medicines which patients choose to purchase least frequently. On the other hand, it is also of interest that many OTC products, and dietary supplements and dermocosmetics in particular, are top drawer preparations, whose consumers are not seriously at risk of significant income cuts. On the other hand, sales of prescription drugs are not similarly at the mercy of the market, as their growth depends primarily on changes made to the drug reimbursement list by the Health Ministry.
This is why we decided not to rein in our development forecast significantly for the pharmaceutical market in 2009. We do not anticipate a reduction in sales, but only in the growth rate. The relatively strong immunity of the pharmaceutical industry to the global economic crisis has been confirmed by sound pharmacy sales results for Q1 2009. Over the first three months of 2009, the market expanded by a respectable 10.7% year on year. Despite the fact that sales are traditionally robust in the first and fourth quarters of a year, the vibrant growth has led to optimistic forecasts (in contrast to forecasts formulated for other areas of the Polish economy) for the whole of 2009, during which, in our opinion, the pharmacy market will expand by almost 6%.
In 2010 and 2011 we expect the market growth rate to increase slowly but steadily. In our opinion, in 2011 the pharmaceutical market in Poland will expand by more than 8%. We expect growth on the market (the overall market and Rx) in 2009 to be driven by sales of preparations used to combat ailments of the sensory organs and respiratory system, along with anti-infectives. In the next few years (2009-2011), the market will be driven by sales of sensory organ preparations (with a CAGR of 12.4% during this period), drugs used to treat ailments of the digestive system and metabolism (a CAGR of 7.6%), and respiratory system medications (a CAGR of 7.3%).
This press release is based on information contained in the latest PMR report entitled “Pharmaceutical and healthcare market in Poland 2009. Development forecasts for 2009-2011”.

For more information on the report please contact:
Marketing Department:
tel. /48/ 12 618 90 00
e-mail: marketing@pmrcorporate.com

About PMR

PMR Publications (www.pmrpublications.com) is a division of PMR, a company providing market information, advice and services to international businesses interested in Central and Eastern European countries and other emerging markets. PMR key areas of operation include market research (through PMR Research), consultancy (through PMR Consulting) and business publications (through PMR Publications). With over 13 years of experience, highly skilled international staff and coverage of over 20 countries, PMR is one of the largest companies of its type in the region.

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